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Friday, April 5, 2024
Good Talk -- Is The NDP On The Verge of Collapse?
.HOUSING ..PROV. VS. FED
Another interference by Liberal-Socialist
NDP-Liberal Coalition arrangements policies
.
are you ready for good
0:11
talk and hello there Peter Mansbridge here I'm in Toronto shantell bear is in Montreal Rob Russo filling in for Bruce
0:19
Anderson is in Ottawa today Rob it's always good to have you with us the the
0:24
Canadian correspondent for The Economist magazine so it's a real high brow
0:31
Rob I'm adjusting my Ascot I don't have my monacle with me this
0:36
morning right okay there's lots to talk about today and here's how we're going to start you know there's a saying that uh
0:45
I think we've all used over time many times and it's been of use this week as
0:50
well and I'm going to use it again now that good politics isn't necessarily good
0:56
policy so that with that in mind we look at a week where the Liberals have
1:02
dropped literally billions of dollars in new promises on housing school
1:08
lunches there a whole question of how they're going to come up with this money that's a separate let's deal with the
1:14
policy versus politics first of all um Shantel why don't you start us is
1:21
there is this all about politics given the state of play of the party standings
1:27
and the party polls and the election timing and all that is this all about
1:33
politics a lot of it is about politics um and and announcing or putting in
1:39
place measures uh that would be hard uh for a conservative rival to to
1:47
eliminate and it would make it hard for that conservative rival to not say what
1:53
you would do with them uh over you know once he gets to government it's also
1:59
politics in the sense that it gets other constituencies to speak warmly of the
2:05
Liberals people who deal with uh breakfast clubs uh meals and schools are
2:11
just one example many housing Advocates uh renters uh Champions uh had good
2:17
things to say it also gives the Prime Minister a lot more oxygen in the media
2:24
we've been talking mostly about Justin shudo and things that he is doing now to your to your proposition good politics
2:32
and good policy I would say that in this case uh what is probably good
2:38
politics is bad policymaking I'm not saying bad policy some of those policies
2:44
uh are rightly U welcomed by uh groups who actually know those files but in
2:52
this country uh the way federalism works is that you need a certain degree of
2:59
cooperation between the federal government and the provinces for any of those programs to see the light of they
3:05
or to succeed uh and I mean if I put it
3:10
to you that I'm going to tell you what to do in your house uh and I don't even
3:16
give you a heads up to ask you how do you feel Peter about me shuffling all these uh paintings that you have behind
3:23
you I have an idea that would make them look a lot better and I I announced this
3:29
to you you're bound to say uh I don't even want to know because they're my
3:34
paintings and it's my wall the way you do it is you go to Peter and you say you
3:40
know do you want to try something and and if the answer is I'm not interested
3:45
then you know you have a problem in this case all of these announcements are coming out of left field uh from a
3:52
federal government that is clearly not in a position to implement most of them unless the provinces or the municipality
4:00
cooperate you do not get to a school board to deliver more meals without
4:05
actually uh coordinating with someone somewhere and so I I fear that many
4:14
Canadians are cheering on the Prime Minister saying who cares about jurisdictions but in practice the
4:20
important thing is not what it says in the Constitution it is why it says it and where it means the expertise in
4:27
education in uh house actually is and it is not in Parliament
4:33
or on Parliament Hill Rob where do you stand on this well as you noted at the top of the
4:40
program here I work for an international publication and uh they're often baffled
4:45
at at our federal system which I think works quite well but one of the areas
4:51
they're baffled at is we've done some we've looked at housing uh one some of the stuff that I've done for the
4:57
economist and I try to explain to them that areas of jurisdiction in Canada are often shared housing is a shared dur
5:05
jurisdiction uh so like health and as a result when things go wrong many of the
5:11
time voters don't know who to blame um but right now uh Justin Trudeau and the
5:17
people around him feel like they're taking the vast uh burden of the blame
5:23
when it comes to problems on both of those fronts so as a result uh they've
5:29
decided that rather than lie inert against the ropes why they get pummeled by uh 10
5:36
Premier they're they're going to fight back um is it is it constitutional
5:42
probably not and it will it actually Advance their files and certainly not in
5:47
the short term and we can go into why in particular in housing those files aren't going to advance in the short term for
5:54
other reasons but Chantel is Right unless you have a willing partner you're not going to be able to Advance those
6:00
files in the short term but um does it does it manifest that they are no longer
6:07
going to get pummeled by the provinces and areas of sh shared jurisdiction yes
6:13
they've decided to get off the mat uh and to fight um and in some instances
6:19
it's not a bad fight um when you hear Doug Ford say not to four plexus for
6:25
instance um in in the province of Ontario um without any really good reason as to why
6:34
um a lot of people a lot of housing experts say uh they don't understand that all you got to do is go to a city
6:42
like Montreal uh walk around uh areas of UTA walk around the plateau where there
6:48
where there are nothing but for Flexes in many instances and and see how desirable those neighbors uh those
6:55
apartments are um see how close they are to transportation and see how well the
7:00
city works as a result where you don't need cars and there a lot more bikes and
7:05
cars on many days in many of those neighborhoods and you say that's not a bad policy fight to have other areas
7:13
though there there is no real um uh policy reason or shortterm policy gain
7:20
to be had it's it's all about politics but this is a government let's not forget that has um sort of wa between in
7:30
it seems um indifference or inertia over the last year they appear to be getting
7:36
over the inertia part and what they've done in the last week in particular where we've seen these waves of
7:43
ministers out making the same announcement uh every single day including the Prime Minister suggests
7:49
that they're uh they're getting over their policy indifference as well well there I'm well Shantel better let her in
7:58
here first because you know we deal with Federal provincial Politics on the big picture we we deal with the rest of
8:05
Canada and Quebec on good talk and seeing as you used Montreal as an example on
8:12
fourplexes I got to see whether Shantel has any disagreement on that before we move on well I having uh sons who are
8:20
raising families in some of those apartments and are doing just fine thank you uh I am not going to say that this
8:27
is a model that doesn't work uh it it certainly beats if you're going to
8:33
create a neighborhood it certainly beats a highrise uh that suddenly Springs up in
8:39
between residential streets that does change the character of a neighborhood a lot more than for plexes but I I think
8:47
we where this becomes a conversation of the Absurd is we are talking about a
8:52
federal government deciding the size of the houses in selected Canadian
8:58
cities really uh in this province since you raised it uh you cannot interact if
9:06
you're the federal government by law you cannot make a deal with the city of Montreal or the city of Quebec without
9:14
making a deal with the province and then the province decides whether Montreal is going to get X or Quebec City is going
9:21
to get y so there's something um somewhat absurd in in the notion how
9:27
about will we have the federal government decide with is a nutritious meal in a school while we're at it uh
9:34
it's the federal government deals with macro issues and the provinces and the
9:40
municipalities with micro issues and that's where the expertise is landed as a result of that now that being said on
9:48
housing what Justin trau is proposing is um no less respectful of provincial
9:55
jurisdictions than what PV is proposing uh he too has a policy that would step
10:02
all over the provinces jurisdiction uh on housing H and and the municipal
10:09
responsibilities so I figure the Liberals uh have decided Well you know
10:15
your choice in the next election is going to be uh federal government that picks fight with provinces the only
10:21
question is which provinces will they pick fights with now some provinces
10:27
between now and the next election will strike deals on these issues with the federal government I think probably BC
10:34
probably Manitoba and I'm not ruling out that Quebec will uh among others there
10:40
have been some Silence from some provinces which tells me that the provinces are not uninterested but
10:48
watching what's happened over the past two weeks all these announcements I figure that U one of the rationale or
10:54
for presenting a late federal budget uh and reversing the the the
11:00
practice that used to be that the federal government came first and the provinces then took a Quee from that to
11:06
have their own budgets is they allowed the number of provinces Quebec is one of those uh Ontario is another to present
11:14
budgets that are frankly less than proactive on housing and in in the face of that now
11:21
documented vacuum it is easier for the prime minister to step in and say well
11:27
here's what I would do because not doing much of anything uh and and that makes
11:33
it probably an interesting strategy it also tells me that this government believes that it still has at least a
11:40
full year in office uh before it has to face voters so that it can get some of
11:45
this money rolled out okay well and wouldn't it wouldn't go ahead Peter I
11:51
was just going to say quickly that uh they will have premieres U opposed to them even after some sign on but they
11:57
will have Mayors across the country um who are lining up to work
12:03
with the federal government Mayors who feel like they are treated like toddlers by the premier uh and Mayors who many of
12:10
whom have been uh insulted by Pier p as well so if the prime minister's strategy
12:16
is to go over the heads of Premier who are opposed to him and go to Mayors who feel like they have been insulted by
12:22
Pier po it might not be a bad strategy politically as well all right well the Mayors also see that big bag of cash
12:30
that that Trudeau's holding and I want to get at that I want to get at that because no where you no matter where you
12:35
stand on federal provincial relations on on the housing issue in general and the
12:41
and school lunches etc etc you probably stand somewhere on money and for a
12:47
government that is deep in debt has a huge deficit to roll out at this time
12:53
saying it's going to spend billions and billions of new dollars on these programs
13:00
where are they going to get it from I mean my assumption is they're not going to run up continually run up the deficit
13:07
because that just gives po have more to go with they'll look for a wedge issue and wedge issue is taxes and especially
13:13
taxes on high income earners is it is this the plan is this
13:18
the plan I mean somewhere they've got to say where they're going to get the money okay so first of all uh your colleagues
13:23
at can on a panel I was doing yesterday ran a a a slide of what what was
13:29
announced but they only put on the slide the actual money that is uh being used
13:35
for funding that is not a loan or a loan guarantee and when you looked at the
13:40
numbers they didn't add up to all that much it sounds great to say $1 billion
13:45
dollar for um School meals over five years but when you break it down it's
13:51
200 Millions which uh 200 million is a lot to me but it is a drop in the
13:56
federal bucket seriously so so the impression that they're spending a lot
14:02
of money is not necessarily matched by the actual numbers when you put them
14:08
there but uh do I believe that there is a strong chance
14:14
that there will be taxes in the federal budget and those taxes will be aimed at uh higher income or people who actually
14:22
make money out of short-term rentals for instance uh and the profits they get
14:28
from that yes I I think that's totally a possibility and it's going to be very hard for PV to stand up for whoever the
14:36
target is because that Target is probably not going to be the
14:41
constituency that he's trying to attract uh in the next election and as you said
14:46
earlier I I mean these are programs that if PV ends up winning the election he's
14:52
unlikely to reverse he's going to have to pay for it somewhere too and somehow uh Rob on the
14:59
money uh I'm looking at my daughter over there she's in her early 20s you asked where the money's coming from it's going
15:05
to be coming from her um um look these announcements yes uh a lot of them are
15:13
are loan guarantees like the big one is the apartment construction loan program which is going to have an extra $1 15
15:18
billion dollar added to but those those are to provide loan guaranties but a lot
15:24
of them do involve real money uh the the Canadian housing infrastructure fund for instance that's going up by by $6
15:31
billion that that's real money the announcements are coming day after day after day why I think we talked about
15:38
this earlier this week Peter it's because if the those announcements were made inside the budget a lockup room
15:45
they'd get lost there there's a blizzard and and so what's the number what's the
15:50
number that usually gets the most attention on budget day uh particularly in this year's round of budgets if you
15:57
look at the budget and the Prof of Quebec and the province of Ontario it's the um enormous size of deficits
16:04
relative to the size of deficits that we've had in the last few years so by making these announcements now uh they
16:11
want people to pay attention to those numbers and not the number of the deficit which almost everybody expects
16:19
to increase substantially from the projected uh deficit which I believe is
16:24
in the mid 20 billion area that was a projected deficit every everybody
16:29
expects it to be much much higher than that that is likely to be uh one of the
16:34
big news items uh on budget day but by getting these announcements out now uh
16:40
people paying attention to what they're doing on the policy side and not who's going to pay for it and how much it's
16:46
going to cost that'll come on April the 16th when you pointed at your
16:51
daughter uh what do you what are you pointing you're pointing at an age group that is going to have to carry this burden for years into the future or is
16:58
there something specific you're talking about yeah that that's what I mean we are going to be paying for this
17:05
particularly as interest rates have gone up uh in terms of debt servicing for a long long time uh we we seem to have
17:12
gotten out of the habit of of uh even talking about balanced budgets nobody even has uh the kind of balance talk
17:20
about like far into the Horizon when we might actually balance the budget uh
17:25
everybody is a Keynesian now in every Province it does doesn't matter if you're liberal or conservative Doug Ford
17:31
has substantially increased the size of the budget in the province of Ontario
17:37
it's because people are hurting it's because there isn't a PO a politician right now who's going to talk about
17:42
restraint uh in in the face of an affordability crisis uh and the price
17:48
will have to be paid later on politically nobody can pay that price of talking about restraint or talking about
17:55
paying off uh or paying down deficits in the current um affordability Crunch and
18:02
don't forget the cost of climate change which we have not seen uh the end of for
18:09
decades to come those those changes uh droughts uh changes in climate that uh
18:16
uh make cities run out of water because forest fires go down the list those are
18:21
all costs that will be born uh in large part by you and me be the government but
18:27
they will add to the burden that the fiscally governments are
18:32
building you know this is kind of a s side issue but still kind of falls under
18:38
the the budget talk because seeing as you've raised the climate change issue
18:43
as a result you end up TR you know raising the carbon tax issue and carbon pricing what do you make of the the
18:50
Liberals attempts to turn the the phrase of the day which is a the tax on the
18:56
part of uh POV to the Pierre doesn't care uh line from the Liberals about the
19:03
conservatives does this does this balance this debate in any way does you
19:08
know people love to to grasp or at least some people love to grasp at the the simple description of an issue and
19:16
certainly acts the tax has won the day for the last at least the last year not
19:21
more is this uh the Pierre doesn't care line does that does that work as a
19:27
strategy um I think it beats I think it beats
19:32
telling people they're getting rebates uh because I think the fundamental proposition is do you want
19:39
uh a government that uh is interested in mitigating climate change I think uh
19:45
while I totally agree with you that the a the tax uh simplistic message has
19:51
worked over the past year um it is also brought out uh to the Forefront the
19:59
argument that uh there the alternatives to a carbon tax are more costly and less
20:05
effective even the premier of Saskatchewan uh last week told the Parliamentary committee that he'd like
20:11
that this government had looked at alternative options but they all cost it more oh well so so this this discussion
20:20
has been P to lead for a long long time but I think flipping the equation to U
20:27
what would you do that is less costly and as effective is kind of working and I do believe that there is a serious
20:35
constituency of Voters uh who actually want a government that has serious
20:41
policies on climate Rob last word on this yeah I think that was certainly true uh in in
20:50
2019 um when Andre sure didn't have a climate policy and paid the price liberals very effectively wedged them on
20:57
it right now I'm I'm not sure that that's true uh it I think that people do
21:02
care about the climate I've always said that Canadians are among the least virtuous virgins going when it comes to
21:08
the climate we drive more than anybody else consume more than anybody else I know that part of the reason for that is
21:13
our is our cold climate U and we we consume a lot more fuel but we don't uh
21:20
we we certainly don't drive vehicles like we care about the climate we buy more SUVs internal combustion engine
21:26
SUVs it seems and than than a lot of other people do around the world um and
21:32
right now right now wo be tied the the politician that wants to apply a tax
21:38
broadly across the country in a year and a half is that going to be the case
21:43
there are no facts in the future it's one of the reasons why I I pay very very little attention to polls right now um
21:51
but right now I I think it's a tough argument to make no matter how snpp be the slogan um and before you move away from
21:58
the budget but on a tangent I think the one thing we can say about the past two
22:04
weeks on all those announcements is that uh and it's you know going to take all
22:09
the fun out of those who cover politics when they go to the budget lockup and it's the issue of whether the NDP will
22:15
support that budget I think you can take it to the bank that they will uh this is
22:21
a a budget as disrespectful of polit provincial jurisdictions as the mdp can
22:27
only dream of um as they have always been the party uh that didn't believe that the division of power should stand
22:33
in the way of any initiative so um don't pack any bags for an election this uh
22:40
summer it's not happening but Ju Just a close on that point I mean the strategy behind the
22:47
Liberals is not to try and keep the NDP on side it's to try and create a wedge against the conservatives right
22:56
well there are certainly more likely to keep the mdp on side with their curan
23:01
strategy than if they went for a so-called fiscal rigor
23:07
budget yeah that'll be a first when you're 15 to 20 points down a year from
23:13
an election conservative but think that the tax to
23:19
rich is also a mantra of the NDP looking at the April 16th
23:24
budget well that's where I'm that's right prime minister was very careful to
23:30
say that there will be no tax increases on lower and middle income Canadians
23:35
right that left a great big uh open space yes it sure did and and you know
23:43
not not just on individuals I assume on corporations businesses too that it's it's going to be one of those kind of
23:50
budgets and it'll be very interesting to see how it plays out over time um okay we're going to take our first break and
23:55
when we come back I want to talk about a the department arure announc yesterday from the um House of Commons at least in
24:02
the next election and and what that may mean um that's uh coming up right after
24:10
this spark conversation spark engagement spark
24:18
action spark advocacy and welcome back you're
24:23
listening to uh the bridge the Friday episode good talk with shantell bear and montre Rob Russo sitting in for Bruce
24:30
Anderson uh in Ottawa I'm Peter Mansbridge you're listening on SiriusXM channel 167 Canada talks or on your
24:37
favorite podcast platform well a fixture in uh the House of Commons for the last
24:42
couple of decades really has been um Charlie Angus of the NDP Northern
24:48
Ontario writing uh described by some is a kind of a Godly in the house I mean
24:54
he's never been shy about making his position clear he's also made a name for himself as a bit of a musician um as
25:01
he's uh performed at any number of different House of Commons events over time uh but Charlie Angus leaving and uh
25:09
not alone there a couple of other NDP MPS announcing they're not going to run again in the next election
25:16
um I know the conservatives have been making a real inroads in that Northern Ontario riding of Charlie Angus so I
25:23
don't know how much that has to do with it but having put that uh down as a
25:29
possibility H how much should we read into this departure from NDP ranks um
25:37
that is unfolding I mean it's not like they have a big carcus they don't so three uh deciding they're not going to
25:43
run again uh is not good news one assumes for jug meet sing Rob what uh
25:49
how do you look at this I I think it's a reflection of the the troubles that the NDP faces I take Mr Angus at his word
25:57
when he says that after 20 years he's put in his time and he wants to spend time with his family absolutely take that uh verbatim
26:07
at his word if I were J jmit Singh would I want him to stay absolutely the man
26:13
has huge name recognition uh he was a feisty leadership uh cont contestant
26:20
lost to Mr Singh uh in in 2017 I think he was kind of wounded
26:26
after that loss I think in in the cases of all three who are departing there's R
26:31
redistricting going on in their writings that's going to make it a little tougher for them um and and I think that that
26:40
you're right Peter the the conservative party has changed under PV uh it is a
26:46
party that is trying to channel the frustrations and the fears of working
26:52
Canadians far less interested in in speaking to C CEOs the nature of
26:57
conservative conservatism is changing as a result and I think it's reflected uh reflective of
27:03
global Trends as as well as it tries to harness this frustration uh and um
27:10
that's that's a threat to the new Democrats as as much uh if not more than a threat to the Liberals um and if you
27:18
look at what the NDP has gotten out of its association with the Liberals you've got to ask yourself was it worth it um
27:26
was was it worth it because if look at their line on the poll it hasn't really changed very very much over the last
27:34
couple of years and now you've got a direct threat coming to you uh in terms
27:39
of uh a conservative party going after workingclass voters uh if you're if you're a a redistricted new democrat
27:47
trying to convince new people to come to you it's a tougher fight um but if
27:52
you're jug meet saying you don't want these people to leave they have name recognition they have Networks
27:58
uh and you're going to have to start over again in in all of those instances Shantel they're also not the only ones
28:05
to leave they are this week's announcement but it comes on the announcements of a two or three others
28:12
so when you do the map Mr Singh is uh literally losing what
28:19
people who are considered the backbone of his caucus in Parliament uh and they would for the most part I
28:26
believe stick around if if they believed that the NDP had a shot uh at at something that looks like Victory U
28:34
Thomas Malera didn't lose many veterans when he ran uh in 2015 because a lot of
28:40
them figured that they would stick around to see uh whether that shot that they had at government would pan out and
28:47
many of them could have become uh or have made up a serious
28:52
cabinet going in the next election looking at the candidates that Mr Sing
28:57
will be leading it's going to be harder to make that argument because a lot of the people that you would have looked
29:04
like Daniel Blakey who's gone to work for the premier of Manitoba Charlie Angus but also you know Carol y uh and
29:13
and some of the BC MPS who aren't running again you could have seen in a cabinet uh but newcomers you're not
29:21
going to say site unseen this would make for a minister at the same time the polls are worse than flat I mean even as
29:29
Jo me Singh was claiming Victory on pharmacare and reminding people of of
29:35
dental care a popular program by the Numbers uh his numbers were not only
29:40
flat but soft there was a poll out this week the nna's weekly poll showed U the
29:47
the raise tightening and that's an overstatement between the Liberals and
29:52
and the conservatives but the the the the Gap is narrowed because the the mdp
29:58
is shedding support now to Charlie Angus yes he did lose that leadership
30:06
battle but for many many people who vote NDP Charlie Angus represents what the
30:12
traditional NDP was a party that is close to indigenous communities that is
30:18
close to working people to the unions um he brings or he brought to the the
30:25
election table a number of features that Jack m sing has not managed to to
30:31
incorporate since he's become leader if you're sitting in a union hall and I've
30:36
done and you've Pro you guys probably have too I've spoken to large unions especially blueco collar unions uh on
30:44
days when Mr Singh was also speaking to them and the connection was not what it
30:50
would have been if Ed Broadband or Alexa McDonna or Charlie yangus had been speaking to them so this is a real lost
30:59
because it it it's not just the conservatives that seem to have changed it's the idea of you know who is a new
31:06
democrat and what the party actually stands for and the calculation for many
31:13
new Democrats strategist after the leadership campaign was the Old Guard people like Charlie Angus will not leave
31:20
us uh and J me Singh is going to bring us those diverse suburbs especially in
31:26
Ontario that we we need if we're going to grow well not only did that not happen but over the time that Mr Singh
31:34
has been leader whatever was left of the orange wave in Quebec and Jack Leighton and Thomas Mare's work is completely
31:42
dissipated all right you two have me intrigued now I I thought this I thought
31:47
of this as a kind of a throwaway one question one answer situation but the way you've both described it sounds to
31:54
me like we're closer to a discussion about the emerging collapse of the
32:01
NDP is that yeah look I think I think the
32:07
threat to the NDP is existential I I I really do and and I can tell you that
32:13
lots of new Democrats feel that way as well um they never thought that they
32:18
were going to have to worry about a conservative stealing their votes in Southwestern Ontario Northern
32:25
Ontario uh and that is the case uh the rallies that uh PV is organizing where
32:33
he's attracting thousands of people between let's say Hamilton and Windsor
32:39
in particular uh are the people who traditionally would vote new democrat um
32:46
and uh those people seem to be gone they seem uh to have abandoned the party that
32:54
has uh that has traditionally car carried the cause for those who have
33:01
less of a chance at getting the house of their dreams that's that's now the the the trophy that's held a by by Pier PB
33:09
and I'm not sure how they're going to wrestle that back PB was very very good
33:14
at identifying housing in particular as an issue that could uh lever boats uh
33:22
Lurch votes in a direction that they hadn't gone in uh you know really since
33:27
RB V it so we're talking almost 100 years uh um so I think the threat to the
33:34
new Democrats at the federal level is is uh is existential and at the same time if you watch what's happening for
33:40
instance in Alberta where the NDP is having a leadership campaign to replace Rachel Nutley uh one of the items that
33:48
is being discussed as part of that leadership campaign is to uh if not
33:53
several at least create more distance between the federal NDP and the provincial NDP I.E if you're a member of
33:59
the Alberta NDP you would not anymore automatically be part of the federal
34:05
NDP and you can see that distance uh growing between NDP governments and
34:12
that's been a long time in the making that NDP governments uh in the Prairies
34:18
uh were closer to Liberal governments than they were to the federal NDP but
34:24
the issue of pipelines um has uh created the you know a lot of friction between
34:31
the federal NDP and the the the saskat one and the Alberta wings of the party
34:37
where the party has been in power the mdp and sasan has had no time for Jack
34:43
Ming now for a number of years over the treatment of at least one NDP caucus
34:50
member but also uh from a sense that he really doesn't connect to what saset and
34:55
new Democrats want to promote uh to try to win back power in Regina and this
35:02
happens I was talking to a friend this week we were trying to think with that Broadband
35:07
gone and Alexa mcdono uh and Roy Romano not on the
35:13
radar uh anymore and John Horan the former premier of BC busy being The
35:18
Ambassador in Europe who is an elder States person for the NDP these days uh
35:25
who does the party look to uh to find its way going forward and and my mind
35:32
was a bit blank I have to say and this was just before Charlie Angus and others
35:37
announced that they were moving on to to some other uh places so I I'm with Rob I
35:45
do believe that the NDP is in serious Peril uh in the next election does the leader seem to
35:52
recognize that is he doing anything say to you yeah I I I think so I mean
35:58
I I think he knows that I think that this began not just with Pierre PV I think that they knew that they were in
36:04
very very serious trouble in the 2021 election people talked about that as a disappointing result for for new
36:11
Democrats but their their strategy in 2021 was really just to hang on to what they got success was can we come back
36:18
with you know between 20 and 25 seats uh and they considered that a successful
36:24
campaign because they were able to crawl back to that to that level given the the
36:30
support that was out there for them so this is something that they have been wrestling with uh and have been
36:35
wrestling with since drug meet Singh became became leader really it was uh kind of a collapse of the liberal vote
36:42
in 2009 that represented an opportunity for them that they didn't really seize
36:48
but 2021 was a sobering campaign for new Democrats uh this one here may be a
36:55
reckoning campaign for them to your next question it's really hard
37:02
to see them changing leaders before the next election there's no convention in the making but also it's not in the
37:08
culture of the NDP to backstab a leader yes they did vote Thomas M but they that
37:15
was stabbing in the front it wasn't backstabbing so I don't see a process uh
37:21
that leads to a renewal of the leadership and I'm I think it's probably too late in
37:28
any event one of the things that the NDP has always had is also kind of like
37:34
brilliant maybe Brilliance too strong a word but really smart people in the background in terms of the uh you know
37:41
the uh the backroom organizers and and thoughtful people about campaigns they
37:48
seem to have lost some of that up late as well it's not just I'm not I'm not sure
37:55
that that that that that's true although it is true that if you're a new democrat
38:01
and you want to go where it's happening you're going to Winnipeg and you're you're going to Victoria these days
38:07
right they they you know uh Daniel Blake's moved to to Winnipeg is emic I think of of uh of where a lot of them
38:15
see um action you know they see action actually governing um and and uh you
38:22
know fresh off a a campaign we talked about the lack of of Elder Statesmen earlier but W Cano is seen as a as a
38:30
fresh new face uh a real possibility surprising people with his uh with his
38:37
toughness and with his pragmatism uh in in Winnipeg um you know bilingual guy uh
38:45
a lot of people are already talking him up at for possibilities at the federal
38:51
level if you're a young new democrat um and you're looking for Action people are going to to the Prov es but you can only
38:59
deal with what you've got and what you've got at the federal level right now is a is a steamroller you've got a a
39:06
a prime minister who has in effect um co-opted the new Democrats we used to talk you know 10 15 years ago about
39:13
should the Liberals and the NDP merge well in many ways they have but the merger has been more of a liberal
39:19
takeover of new Democrats is justtin Trudeau's moved them to the LA but you've got that you know you're getting
39:25
squeed from from there and you're also getting squeezed from uh from the conservatives as well so they're in a
39:31
vice at the federal level the vice is closing and don't forget there are elections coming this year in saset and
39:38
NBC and those are two places where the NDP tends to put resources so and where
39:45
at least in BC the party is in power and by the Numbers uh could be headed for a
39:51
a seriously solid election result some of the ministers in BC these days used
39:57
to be members of Thomas M's and Jack Leon's caucus which kind of speaks to
40:02
the kind of movement that Rob is talking about I you go where you can make a difference uh and not just be doing more
40:09
of the same the Daniel I'm glad you raised the Daniel Blakey thing because I think that really hurt um Daniel Blakey
40:17
of course was a you know the son of a former NDP member Bill Blakey Who U was
40:24
very well regarded not only within the NDP caucus but on the hill in general um and Daniel Blakey seemed to be heading
40:31
in the same direction you know I watched him give a speech um I guess it was early last year and you know he was
40:38
really good he was on he was on the track he was on the right track to become this kind of national player and
40:43
then suddenly seemingly out of nowhere although clearly out of a lot of respect for Rob Cano he decided to head back to
40:51
Winnipeg as as a chief of staff I think he's one of the senior positions in in W
40:56
canoes um office in in uh in Winnipeg so that was a loss um on Parliament Hill
41:03
for the NDP and and you know for those who you know like politics um the other
41:09
thing that that that you mentioned about can wob canoe is and I you know declare my bias because I used to work with him
41:16
when he was a CBC journalist and it was a damn good one um I wasn't afraid at
41:21
all to rock the boat internally as well as externally um but at the Rooney
41:27
funeral a couple of weeks ago W Cano was there and watching him in that long
41:33
2hour period while we were waiting for the service to begin inside the Basilica just his walk up the aisle to
41:40
his seat took him about an hour because everybody wanted to shake his hand
41:47
liberals conservatives you name it uh he is the uh he is the rising star of the
41:53
moment uh no question about that we'll see how it plays out we see a lot of pre premieres coming into the game and uh
42:00
kind of flame out uh after a while but uh Bob canoe it doesn't look like that
42:06
kind but we'll see okay we're going to take our final break and we come back we've got foreign interference to talk
42:11
about at times it looks like just about everybody wanted to interfere in our
42:17
elections how bad was it we'll talk about that when we come
42:26
back
42:35
and welcome back final segment of good talk for this week shantell bear in Montreal Rob brusso filling in for Bruce
42:41
Anderson in Ottawa and Peter Mansbridge in Toronto today all right the final topic uh for discussion today the
42:48
foreign the the inquiry commission whatever they call it looking into foreign interference in the uh last
42:56
election has been underway and then most of the time taken up this week with the
43:01
Aon OU's testimony about what was happening during the last election
43:06
campaign where he said there was no question that there was interference on a number of writings and he had been uh
43:12
he was aware of it at the end of the day he doesn't think it impacted the final
43:18
result but he was very concerned about what was in fact happening and since his
43:23
testimony it's also come out now that uh and that was foreign interference by China um since then it's come out that
43:31
both India and Pakistan were interfering with the Canadian election as well now
43:36
the process now how much of this should we be actually surprised
43:42
about um and what indications are there that anything is going to be done about
43:48
it uh Rob Bo don't you start on this well I think we should be concerned uh
43:54
how much are we surprised by uh it's it's been there I mean all of us
44:00
remember Brian and all of us remember him uh rounding up people from the Old Mission Brewery in Montreal to
44:07
make sure that he he got votes um it it it caused a bit of a sensation then but
44:14
it really caused very few changes I I think the thing that we that comes out of this uh that we must we we have to be
44:21
immediately seized with um is is that the nature of our system system is so
44:29
open to being tampered with and and we've known about it for a while and we haven't changed it Hong ran as a a
44:37
liberal candidate ran for the nomination in Dawn Valley um and uh he said that he
44:43
knew that there were probably International students working on his behalf some of them as young as 14 years
44:50
old um and is that something that that that should be allowed to happen no but
44:56
the truth is it's it's you know when I was a kid I used to love hanging around the Treehouse and we'd always have a
45:02
we'd elect the leader at the treeh house uh and the leader would then make um Decisions by Fiat and and nominations in
45:10
Canada are essentially the same way they're very very few rules uh widely
45:15
open to to to being abused um and in in
45:21
recent decades people were lauded if they could rack them and stack them right somebody who could fill a room uh
45:29
with people who were instant members was considered a great organizer that that was one of the standards for political
45:36
success uh and I think it's clear that if we want to make our system less susceptible to foreign interference or
45:43
the interference of any kind that's not Democratic we got to do something about
45:48
that sh yes um Canadian political parties the
45:54
federal ones in particular of all always been uh because of the laxity of their rules when it comes to um votes for the
46:03
leadership or when it comes to selecting candidates they've always been open to
46:09
um strategies from single issue groups um back in the 80s the anti-abortion
46:16
movement targeted the Liberals you'll remember that uh John Turner lost his two co-chairs uh who wanted to run for
46:23
him as MPS they lost nomination battles to to um anti-abortion organizations
46:30
packing the room so the notion that foreign governments uh would see their
46:35
interest in advancing ponds uh by manipulating results at the local level
46:41
and end ending up with uh candidates for various Federal parties that reflect the
46:47
views of choose your country and choose your regime uh well it's it's almost
46:54
child but what I found really interesting this week in in the in the
46:59
not great sense of the word is when the the the main organizers for the three
47:06
main parties the NDP the Liberals and the conservatives testified as to the kind of advice they received from this
47:13
group of uh top civil servants and security officials who were supposed to supervise the the election uh for
47:20
instances of foreign interference and basically what they they got and they
47:26
were animous on this was a crash course in you know don't click on the wrong
47:31
link uh C basic cyber security 101 and at the same time as a result of
47:38
the work of the commission it is now a fact that that this same group did have
47:45
information that went well beyond precautions into uh events that were
47:51
happening or or that could be described as interference happening what I also Al
47:57
found really striking was well two things one this group is made up of
48:02
um you know High uh placed uh public servants fine and security officials but
48:08
it doesn't include anyone who's ever run a campaign or has any c knowledge of running a campaign which uh doesn't give
48:16
them a lot of expertise as to how you would actually manipulate uh the results on the ground and two it sits way up
48:24
there on top of a mountain uh when if you're going to interfere in an election
48:29
it's happening on the ground at ground level in local uh constituencies it's not happening in the big picture and so
48:39
you you look at both the makeup of the group that is supposed to safeguard elections and the way that they approach
48:46
the issue it's not good enough to just say well you know in the end didn't impact
48:52
the outcome of the last election what that also vs for a future
48:57
unless there's serious tightening up of the rules and a serious acknowledgement of how elections are played is that you
49:05
are going to end up with uh foreign interest groups commanding
49:11
the Loyalty of sections of the caucus not because the views of of of some of
49:17
the people who would be part of that constituency are wrong or illegal or
49:23
disloyal but because a critical mass of them will have been placed inside the Machinery of Parliament and government
49:31
uh that and and that their importance will not reflect a the actual reality of
49:37
Canadian society and clear manipulation will now be happening from the inside
49:43
Rob do you think any of the parties are really spending a lot of time thinking
49:48
about this or caring about this uh and I asked because you know perhaps you gave
49:55
us some of the history you know perhaps they're not that interested in tightening up the rules
50:01
surrounding surrounding the way things operate I I I do believe that it has
50:07
served the interests of leaders who who often say that they're interested in open
50:13
nominations uh to take advantage of these rules in order to make sure that the candidate of their choice uh is
50:20
nominated in writings uh you know they'll call a nomination meeting they'll say it's wide open and then
50:27
they'll say that the meeting has to happen in two days for instance so people who uh aren't already organized
50:32
and funded by the parties have no time to actually contest the nominations but I think when it so I think at that level
50:40
I'd be very I'd be surprised I'm hopeful but I'd be very surprised if uh those around the leader made cha uh made
50:47
changes I do think we're going to see um party uh campaign officials who are
50:53
brought in by security people uh for these Bri briefings be less reticent
50:59
about maintaining secrecy I remember uh during the 2019 campaign I was at a
51:04
lunch with with somebody who was helping to run if not run the conservative campaign and he had to leave that lunch
51:12
like that why because he was called to an urgent security meeting uh very very important couldn't tell me what it was
51:18
about he shouldn't have even told me it was a security meeting because of course that instantly got my antenna ey bristling and I scrambled a bunch of
51:25
cameras all over the including cameras to handong nomination meeting um but uh
51:32
I think they came they went into that meeting and they came out and said uh
51:37
nothing and wed Solomon who was involved in running the conservative campaign testified this week saying I don't know
51:44
that I'm going to be as quiet we were too quiet I should have complained about it I should have gone public about it uh
51:49
and I think transparency and sunlight might be a very very healthy thing uh
51:55
when these kinds of warnings are issued in the future okay and on that we're going to uh leave it for this week we
52:01
thank Rob for filling in for Bruce this week uh good of you to do that and Shantel as as always um subscribe to the
52:09
buzz if you haven't already nationalnewswatch decom it's my Weekly Newsletter no charge comes out Saturday
52:15
mornings 7:30 it'll be in your inbox or 7 am. in your inbox uh the uh broadcast
52:22
of this good talk on YouTube is available as of Friday afternoon thank
52:28
you all and uh thank you for listening we'll talk to you again on
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