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[Music]
[Music]
[Music] Israel and Iran are s enemies they promised to wipe each other off the face
of the the Earth and this is not an exaggeration 2 weeks ago Israel struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria
and now Iran has struck back it rained some 300 missiles and drones on Israel the damage was minimal but the message
was clear Iran won't take it lying down and even though though the word unprecedented is abused in the news
media a lot this this one was truly unprecedented Iran has never in the past directly
struck Israeli territory I guess the million dollar question then is what happens next will it blow into a bigger
war or will cooler heads prevail what are netanyahu's options why did Iran's
Ayatollah have to strike who's military force is superior can Joe Biden still stay away from war why is this conflict
a headache for India how will it impact you oil prices flights economy we'll
cover it all tonight also look at the regional players who stands where and why are Iran and Israel enemies in
the first place all this is more coming up in the special edition of Vantage the headlines
[Music] first in India Prime Minister Modi releases the bjp's manifesto ahead of
Elections the document titled prime minister modi's guarantee focuses on women the youth the poor and the farmers
the manifesto promises to implement the uniform civil code and the citizenship Amendment act it also guarantees that
India will soon be the third largest economy [Music]
Australian police identify the Sydney Mall attacker the as salent was a 40-year-old man suffering from mental
illness on Saturday he went on a stabbing Rampage at a shopping center killing six people and injuring many
others he was shot dead by a police officer at the
sea Venezuela outraged over a new oil lease of Guyana karakas rejects the
concession that gyana has given the US oil firm Exon Mobile in 2015 oil was
discovered in these disputed Waters since then the long-standing dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has only
intensified Solomon Islands prepares for polls under China Shadow the archipelago is caught in a tussle between China and
the West its current prime minister has vowed to strengthen bonds with Beijing if reelected voting will take place on
the 17th of April and at least 19 people killed in the landslide in central Indonesia
several
others are missing torrential rains triggered this landslide slide in
the last few months the region has been hit by several
landslides a number of Iranian missiles fell inside Israeli territory causing
minor damage
[Music]
it's one of the worst feelings ever knowing something will happen but not knowing when Israelis experienced that
feeling for most of last week the Iranian military was poised to strike them but no one knew when when late last
night it happened hundreds of projectiles were fired towards Israel we're talking about a cocktail of
weapons Israel counted more than 300 of them 170 drones 30 cruise missiles and
110 bistic missiles they were fired from different locations from Iran from Syria from Iraq and from Yemen but Israel was
ready for it you see this was a widely expected attack a tit fortat response last week Israel had struck Iran's
Embassy in Syria they ended up killing top Iranian commanders so Iran was always going to respond which is why
Israel and its allies were ready they say around 99% of the projectiles were shot down some over the Iraqi and
Syrian airspace the rest over Israel it filled the night sky with explosions
take a look [Music]
[Music] now 300 is a big number but these drones and missiles caused very little damage
around 12 people were injured and one girl was killed plus a military base in southern Israel was slightly damaged I
guess the obvious question is how it was a joint effort by Israel's allies especially the US and the UK both
countries had moved important assets to the region the US and the UK so when Iran attacked they were ready fighter
jets took off from undisclosed bases in the region they shot down most of the drones before they reached the target
even Jordan took down a few projectiles of course some did make it to Israel but
those were shot down by the air defense system and there are many layers to it
but this time two of them were key the Aros system which shoots down long range missiles and the Iron Dome which shoots
down short range Rockets both use the same concept track a projectile fire ammunition at it and
blow it up in the sky it's costly but clearly effective but good defense was
not the only reason for the limited damage Iran's attack was half-hearted
they wanted to create a spectacle they wanted to appease their domestic audience but damage perhaps was not
their goal Iran's foreign minister Minister has admitted this he says tan had informed the US of about the nature
of its attacks we announced to the White House in a message this morning that our
operations will be limited and minimal with the aim of legitimate defense and Punishment of the Israeli
regime which brings us to the reactions the world is understandably worried because damage or not this attack is
unprecedented in the past Iran has used proxies to strike Israel like hisbah and
Hamas they have never used their own military this is the first direct
Iranian attack on Israel which makes it very significant that was also the that
was also in fact reflected in the ground reactions Iranians were over the moon they took out bike rallies and marches
in thran and they called it a proud and happy [Music]
moment we hope this attack continues to the point that Israel is destroyed
we will never allow anyone to violate Iranian territory any enemy contemplating aggression against Iran
will meet the same fate as [Applause]
Israel so celebrations in Iran over in Israel things were more subdued some said they were used to the
rocketed missile barrage others were more wary [Laughter]
actually all heard about the attack of the of Iran but uh we're not afraid because we went to to celebrate birthday
of our one of our friends and we already got used to being attacked for the last 6
[Music] months the situation is really
frightening because we're afraid of what happens and all of uh bombing and
aircraft that are coming so what next Iran says the
operation is over and they clearly mean it if they wanted escalation this attack
would have looked very different plus life is slowly returning to normal last night most countries in the region had
shut their airspace but now they're back up and running even Israel has reopened its
airspace having said that the danger has not passed far from it a lot depends on Benin Netanyahu his War cabinet has been
asked to decide on a response the question is what will they choose more
escalation or a truce Israel's own allies do not want an escalation they have condemned Iran's missile attack but
they may not support retaliation look at the reaction so far Joe Biden had a phone call with Netanyahu he called
Iran's attack Brazen he also promised Ironclad support for Israel UK prime minister Rishi sonak released a similar
statement he called Iran's attack Reckless he also accused Teran of sowing chaos in the region so did German
Chancellor Olaf Schulz he said the attack was unjustifiable and irresponsible so the West is firmly
behind Israel maybe not on escalating the conflict but definitely on condemning
Iran if this attack had been successful The Fallout for regional stability would
be hard to overstate and we stand by the security of Israel and The Wider region which is of course important for our
security here at home too this is an unjustifiable attack this
is a serious escalation of the situation and it is in no way acceptable understandable or tolerable fortunately
the Israeli Air Defense Forces largely succeeded in fending off this attack supported by the USA and partners also
in the Arab world now we come to the other Camp
Russia and China two countries that have closed relations with with Iran Russia has expressed concern over the attack
they have advis restraint but the statement also mentions Israel strike on the Iranian consulate so a bit of a
balancing act there same with China they too have called for restraint but Beijing says it is a spillover of the
Gaza conflict so China is saying fix Gaza first the rest will fall in place
and what about India New Delhi has called for deescalation and restraint it has advised a return to diplomacy much
like Arab Nations Saudi Arabia wants the UN security Council to take the lead it has asked Israel and Iran to avoid
war but will they listen the next few hours will be very important Israel has
requested
a meeting of the United Nations security Council it will be convening
in a few hours from now meanwhile Biden has gathered the G7
leaders if they together put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu they can prevent an escalation perhaps of course A minor
Fallout is still expected Israel has already struck Eastern Lebanon they're going out after
Iran proxy the hisbah but that conflict has not boiled over yet whether it does
or not depends on Israel's next
move now before we discuss what happens next first let's tell you how this attack took shape what happened behind
the scenes what were Iran's calculations who did they speak to and what kind of support did they
have now this enmity is a very old story but the latest episode began exactly 2
weeks ago when the Israelis struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Iran immediately vowed to take
revenge this failure of the Israeli regime in Gaza will definitely continue as well as these desperate efforts like
what they did in Syria of course they will be slapped for this
action now the question was what would be the scale of the attack or in the ayatollah's words how hard would the
slap be Iran had a lot to consider the last thing they can afford right now is
a direct war with Israel at the same time they couldn't have done nothing and we'll tell you why in a bit so on camera
Iranian officials started talking tough and behind the scenes they began gaming the scenarios and their assessment was
this nanahu was trying to pull them into a wider regional conflict so they reached out to other to other Regional
players like Oman Iran contacted Oman and asked them to deliver some messages
to the us and this is not a first Oman has often acted as a go between for the
Iranians and the Americans so last Sunday the Iranian foreign minister traveled to Oman and he apparently
delivered two clear messages number one Iran will respond to Israel's attack in a quote unquote controlled and non
escalatory way and number two Iran will deploy its proxies for the mission and
that's
exactly what they did the missiles and drones were launched from at
least four different countries like we told you Iran Iraq Syria and
Yemen so
in a way the US had prior warning from Iran and this communication was supposed to be a
secret but the story got out the White House faced questions it was asked if the Iranians had made contact and
Biden's press secretary did not deny it has Iran been in touch via
intermediaries with Washington to indicate that when it responds to Israel's attack on on its Embassy on its
Syrian Embassy that it will not escalate we've been also very clear I'm not going to get into public back and forth we
warn Iran not to use uh this attack as a pretext to escalate further in the region or attack us facil are person
Personnel I'm going to be super mindful not to to speak beyond that from here or elaborate
further so neither confirmation nor denial when you connect the dots this is what you get the inputs from tan could
be shaping Washington's response yesterday just hours before the Iranian strikes Joe Biden spoke with Benin
Netanyahu the US president promised to help Israel defend itself but if Israel chooses to retaliate the Americans won't
support that operation that's what Biden is said to have told nth so while he's calling the support to Israel Ironclad
he also wants to make it conditional Washington also expects Israeli officials to inform them before
launching any operation again the question is will Netanyahu pay heed to this or will he
launch a
Counterattack now I know Grand statements never help but this one is pretty spot-on the immediate future of
West Asia depends on one man Benjamin Netanyahu the prime minister of Israel
this situation is Taylor Made for him it's a chance to take the focus away from Gaza it's also a chance to fulfill
his career-long goal to strike deep inside Iran to take out their strategic
assets including their nuclear sides just one problem though his allies are
not on board both the US and the UK have urged deescalation like I said Biden has reportedly made his stand clear to
Netanyahu if you attack Iran we will not help but where does that leave the prime minister of Israel what options does he
have in public Netanyahu is defiant he says Israel is ready for all scenarios
both defensive and offensive as citizens of Israel in recent years and especially
in recent weeks Israel has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran our defensive systems are deployed we
are ready for any scenario both defensively and offensively the state of Israel is strong the IDF is
strong the public is strong so he's not ruled out retaliation
and you can see why netanyahu's popularity has hit rock bottom the only thing keeping him in office is the Gaza
War but he's running out of places to attack Israel has reached the southernmost point of Gaza so he's got
to wind up the War sooner or later which means he may have to step down and in that context a conf with Iran would help
him it would extend his time in office but the trade-off would be huge Israel's
last attack was an was on Iranian consulate so Tan's response was lukewarm
borderline performative but what if Israel strikes Iranian cities and Military
targets chances are the response won't be
lukew if the Zionist regime takes any action against the Islamic Republic
whether on our soil or in places belonging to us in Syria or elsewhere
our next operation will be much
larger so what options does Netanyahu have we can think of three of them the first is to call it
Square Israel's First Strike killed top Iranian commanders compared to that Iran
did not cause much damage so Netanyahu can leave it at that a score of 1-1 the second option is to Target Iranian
proxies now we've already seen attacks on the hisbah in in Lebanon Israel can keep doing that Iran has many assets and
Military sites in the region like in Syria in Iraq and Yemen Israel could choose to Target them instead it's
relatively low risk and finally option number three hit back inside Iran this
would likely lead to a cycle of reprisals in the worst case even War so will Benin Netanyahu risk it
the logic says he won't but in the last 6 months we've not seen a lot of display
of that logic so we've also seen a lot of confusing decisions some of which
make no strategic sense so a lot depends on netanyahu's allies first of all how much pressure can the West put on him
will they threaten to cut off military aid same with Israel's neighbors a wider War would affect all of them it would
disrupt oil trade via the straight of hormos and Iran has always threatened to close and this would give them the
perfect excuse to do it around 30% 30 30% of global oil trade passes via this
route if Iran shuts it West Asia will suffer that's enough reason for them to
urge deescalation I guess it's all about appetite and ambition Netanyahu has
enough reasons to claim a success he took out top Iranian commanders he
repelled a massive Iranian attack plus he red rallied his Western allies for
most people people that would be a win but nanahu does not think like that he's
not just focused on Israel strategic goals he's also focused on his political career which is why this is a dangerous
moment Israel's war cabinet is meeting to discuss the way forward there are three members in this cabinet one of
them is Benny Gans he's a former Defense Minister also a rival of Netanyahu Gans says Israel will respond at the right
time in the face of the Iranian we will build a regional Coalition and
exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us and most
importantly faced with the desire of our enemies to harm us we will continue to unite and become
stronger chances are there will be some sort of response the only question is how far will it
go now let's look at the other side and that is an an and their leader Ayatollah Ali k k is Iran's Grand Ayatollah that's
a religious title makes him the ultimate Authority in Theocratic Iran he's the country's top leader 84 years old will
be 85 this week he's been in power since 1989 making him one of the longest
serving leaders in West Asia he holds constitutional authority over the Judiciary the Army the Revolutionary
guard and the state media so the buck stops with this man and and he is definitely the one who sanctioned the
attack on Israel he cleared it last week he had promised that Israel would be quote unquote slapped and now he claims
to have delivered to the great joy of many in Iran take a look at this
[Applause] [Music]
[Music] [Applause]
we were extremely happy with this action of the irgc and in fact we felt better
after a long time this was a help and companionship with the oppressed people of Gaza and the West
Bank this sadness and anger remained in the hearts of all of us and we were always waiting for this Revenge to be
carried out and for the Israelis to be punished for their brutality and we couldn't believe it when the news came
last night that Banner with the missile you
see it is up in thran's Palestine Square it has a message in both farsy and Hebrew in Farsi or Persian it says the
next lap will be harder in Hebrew it says your next mistake will be the end
of your state dual messaging and that's not a coincidence it explains why the people
of Iran are Overjoyed even though Israel seems relatively
unharmed Israel says the so-called slap was ineffective they say 99% of Iran's
missiles and drones were shot down but that's not what the people in Iran are
hearing the statement announced the launch of missiles and drones to Targets in occupied lands that successfully hit
the targets he's saying they successfully hit the targets the irgc that's Iran's
Islamic revolutionary guard issued a statement they're like a parallel military body their job is to
defend Iran from external and internal threats and they report to the Ayatollah now this body the irgc says it
successfully hit Targets in Israel and that's what the Iranian State media is now reporting so the people in Iran are
being told that quote unquote heavy blows have been dealt to the Israelis
especially the air base in the Nev desert the Nim Air Base the base that
was used to launch the air strikes on the Iranian Consulate in Syria and Israel admits that some missiles did hit
this base but they say it was minor infrastructure damage in fact the Israelis even released this footage
later reportedly showing the base still in
use but of course the people in Iran do not see any of this they saw the missiles going towards Israel their news
channels are apparently quoting the special forces the irgc saying that heavy blows were dealt to Israel
and so the people in Iran think that ayat has given a resounding response to
the Israelis and they were celebrating [Applause]
[Music] [Applause]
[Music] which brings us to K's game plan he could not afford to look weak a few years back the Americans killed kasim
sumani last week the Israeli is killed Iranian generals the regime in tan was already on the back foot domestically
the economy is in a shambles their currency the real has it an alltime low inflation is touching 50% we've seen
public protest in the last few years in 2022 there was the anti-h hijab protest where
the people fought back against the Iranian regime and it was only quelled by Brute Force given this backdrop and
now the attack on their Consulate in Syria K could not afford to look weak he could not afford for the people
of Iran or for the Iranian proxies outside to think that the regime cannot stand up to Israel so in some ways last
night's attack was K's only option of course that does not make it right and it will have its own set of consequences
es K may have stamped out some domestic Embers of resentment but he may have
just started a fire around the
world and speaking of this fire let's turn to the US where President Joe Biden is in a
fix here's how Washington would see this strike Iran America's biggest problem in
West Asia has openly attacked America's closest friend in the
region thean has crossed a red line it never dared to before and it happened
under Biden's watch he should be sweating at the very thought of having to explain this when
Biden heard about the attack he rushed back to the White House he had a call with Netanyahu and then issued a
statement and the last two lines of the statement are the ones to note Biden said his support for Israel was
Ironclad and that the United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these
threats from Iran sounds like the usual token statement but maybe the word defense
should be looked at closely because apparently that's as far as Biden is willing to go during the call he
reportedly said that the Iranian attack had been foiled and that Netanyahu should quote unquote take the
win this doesn't mean Biden has washed his hands off the matter he is planning a diplomatic offensive along with the G7
and the US will of course back Israel at the United Nations security Council meet that has been called today but that
doesn't really give the same impact does it Iran fired missiles Biden will wag
his finger and fire sanctions it doesn't make him look too tough even if it may be the wiser course
of action to prevent an allout war in West Asia but this defensive strategy leaves Biden open to political attacks
at home which by the way have already begun listen this before going any further I want to say God Bless the
people of Israel they're under attack right now that's that's because we show
great weakness this would not happen the weakness that we've shown it's
unbelievable and it would not have happened if we were in office you know that they know that everybody knows
that Trump has made his move he has blamed the attack on Biden's weakness and not just last night's attack Trump
has blamed everything else on Joe Biden too it wasn't only Putin it was Putin and
plenty of other things that Biden got wrong with Putin Ukraine would have never happened Israel attack both
October 7th and today would have never happened it's impossible to accurately
predict what could have happened but Trump doesn't need to be accurate he just needs to undermine the people's
confidence in Biden which will probably be easy after this latest mess it leaves Biden in an unenviable position having
to decide what next as much as Biden would like to stay on the defense it's not just his call to
make Netanyahu has been attacked he of all people will want to respond he has a tough guy reputation to uphold and he
might throw Biden under the bus to do it a US senator Tim Kain says Biden is wary
of Netanyahu and Biden apparently knows that he was quote unquote played by the Israeli PM this was during the early
months of the Gaza War which explains his change in stance remember Biden flew down to Israel when
the October 7th attack took place he hugged Netanyahu as soon as he landed and he said the US would always be by
Israel's side but that equation has changed in recent weeks the civilian death toll was
mounting and Israel was threatening to attack Rafa in Gaza the last City in Gaza that is that has been left standing
where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are taking Refuge so Biden issued a
threat the USA to Israel would be conditional if Netanyahu
did not do more to protect civilians it looked like Biden had run out of patience the shift also suited his
politics with the American Muslim V voters so he seemed ready to reign in menim and
Netanyahu but a lot has changed now what happens next what happens if Netanyahu
attacks Iran it will begin a new cycle of violence and eye for an eye scenario until the entirety of West Asia is on
fire will Joe Biden allow Israel to burn down probably not Israel is America's
closest Ally Biden will not be able to sit back and watch he either abandons Israel or joins it and whatever comes
next the middle ground it seems is gone and this has put Biden in a terrible
position he doesn't really have the freedom to choose his next
move now let's look at the worst case scenario because that's what you do in situations like this look at all
possibilities hoping it doesn't come to the worst what would a full-blown war between Iran and Israel look like how do
they compare militarily their capabilities are very different Israel is one of west Asia's
most powerful militares and Iran is one of the largest whose force is superior
what kind of fire power do they have and who has a better shot at winning our next report tells you
[Applause] [Music] the drum beats of War are sounding in
West Asia yet again Israel and Iran are in the middle of an escalating crisis at
the heart of it lies a crucial question if the worst case scenario were to unfold who will come out on
top Israel versus Iran whose military might has the upper
hand on the surface the numbers favor Iran Iran has a huge population at least
in comparison into Israel Iran is home to about 89 million people as compared
to Israel's population of about 10 million so on paper it's Advantage Iran
particularly when it comes to the size of its military the Iranian armed forces are
among the largest in West Asia with at least 580,000 active duty personnel and
200,000 trained Reserve Personnel how big is Israel's military it has about
170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reservists so Iran's active Personnel is
more than Thrice that of Israel's it also has a larger Navy more tanks and armored vehicles and greater access to
fuel so far Iran seems to have the upper hand but there is a catch raw data alone
doesn't tell you the whole story quantitative factors play a role yes but so do qualitative ones like training and
advancement of technology and the nation that comes out on top here is the one with more money which is
Israel Iran has a GDP of 413 billion while Israel's GDP stands at $539
billion this affects their respective military budgets reportedly Iran's is at
$10 billion whereas Israel has a military budget of $24.4 billion that's
almost 2.5 times higher but the biggest advantage that
Israel has has is that its military is backed by the United States America provides Israel with a $3.8 billion
annual military assistance this has allowed Israel to have more advanced Weaponry with Superior Force Readiness
making it one of west Asia's most powerful militaries let's see how this plays out
on land Water and Air in terms of tank force like the zulfiker series and the
karar MPT Iran builds its own tanks usually they are based on outdated
designs then there are t-72s t-54s and t-55s which are Iranian copies and
considered inferior to the Israeli defense tanks like the marava Mark 4 which is one of the best armored tanks
in the game now let's look at the Navy Iran's
Navy is larger than Israel's but not as robust Israel's Navy has access to
American and European suppliers and their Advanced missiles and vessels now
when it comes to air power contrary to the numbers Trend Israel's force is larger than Iran's its Arsenal includes
612 aircraft to Iran's 551 its primary fighting force consists
of at least 66 f-15s 175 f-16s and 27
F35 stealth Fighters it's also regarded as one of the best in the world has
about 63 f4s and 26 f14s in comparison Iran's air Arsenal is
believed to be aging rapidly so Israel has superior quality which is why Iran
is using another tactic on the battlefield deploying weapons in large
quantities Iran has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles they are capable of striking
targets about 2,000 km away this puts Israel well within its range and during
the weekend's attack tan launched dozens of explosive Laden drones these are
Iran's Pride they are unmanned aerial Vehicles believed to be Shah heads meaning
witness in Farsi these are long range drones which have been called the AK-47s
of tahan because they are cheap mass-produced and deadly plus Iran is not without allies
one of its most important is the Lebanese militia Hezbollah according to Israeli intelligence hezbollah's Arsenal
contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles including longrange and precision guided missiles but then again
conventional forces aren't the only ones that can be used on a battlefield Israel is believed to possess the ability to
launch nuclear strikes from Land Air and sea Israel has never openly confirmed or
denied its possession of nuclear weapons so Iran has the numbers Israel has the
technology while you can't predict a clear winner if this conflict escalates any further there's no doubt over who
will be the biggest loser the already rest of region and its millions of
people and where does India feature in this conflict in the middle again both
Israel
and Iran are very important partners for India and has all kinds of
Investments there both political and economic so picking a side is
virtually
impossible and New Delhi statement reflects this let me quote what the statement from India says we are ser ly
concerned at the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran we call for immediate deescalation exercise
of restraint stepping back from violence and return to the path of
diplomacy that's what the Indian statement says no blame game no criticism no taking sides India is
basically
asking both countries to deescalate and we'll get to the Strategic
considerations in a bit but first India has a more immediate concern
on Saturday Iran captured a ship near the straight of horos it's called the MSC Aries Reports say the ship is linked
to an Israeli businessman so Iran seized it around 25 people are on board the
vessel 17 of them are Indians so getting them released is a big priority Indian
officials have apparently reached out to Iran they're trying to get the sailors released which brings us to the larger
issue how will India navigate this conflict if it's a short one there isn't
much to do but what if Israel hits back what if things escalate into a bigger conflict then India faces some tough
choices let's look at three key factors trade relations political relations and
strategic relations we start with trade the India Israel trade is around 7 and 1
half billion dollar what about the India Iran trade it's around $25 billion doar but there's a key difference here Iran
is sanctioned by Western Country so India buys very little oil from Iran before the sanctions trade was much
higher at about 30 billion in 2015 let's look at what this trade is
made up of Israel sells a lot of military equipment to India in fact New Delhi is Israel's top buyer at the same
time Iran is an oil giant if the sanctions are lifted the energy trade can flourish again so oil and weapons
two very important items that India buys from these two countries which brings us to the second
Factor political relations Prime Minister Modi has invested a lot in his relationship with Israel in fact he
deated it until then India could not separate Israel and Palestine both
relations were interl but Modi decided to separate them in 2017 he went to Israel and since
then Israel has become a key partner of India with Iran it's been a different
trajectory there are cultural and linguistic ties longstanding political exchanges and even shared history there
have been some uncomfortable statements remarks especially on Kashmir but the relationship has largely been
stable and that brings us to the final Factor the Strategic relations India sees Israel as a gateway to Europe last
year at the G20 Summit India announced a new economic Corridor it would link India to Europe via Israel plus both
countries are part of a political grouping called the i2u2 India Israel the US and the UAE
hence I to You2 it's also called the West Asian Squad now with Iran India has
other shared interests for starters Afghanistan both India and Iran support the rights of Afghan minorities they
also oppose terror camps in Afghanistan and like Israel India sees Iran as a
Gateway not to Europe but to Central Asia New Delhi is building a trading terminal in southeast Iran at the Port
of chabahar it is India's first ever overseas Port investment and how much is
it worth almost $85 million the plan is to use chabahar to access Afghanistan
and Central Asia this way India can sidestep Pakistan so long story short both
countries are very important to India there's a lot of money and strategic depth at stake which is why taking sides
won't be easy for New Delhi if the fighting escalates India will also have to think about its citizens there are
18,000 Indians living in Israel also between 5,000 10,000 Indians in Iran if
you add the wider Gulf region a lot more up to 9 million Indians live in this region and don't forget the energy trade
around 40 40% of India's oil comes from West Asia plus 70% of its gas so a wider
War would be a political and economic nightmare for India hence new delhi's
called for deescalation you've seen a lot of balancing acts from India recently especially in Ukraine but if
this war drags on it could be India's toughest challenge yet
in the last two years our world has seen major Wars in 2022 it began with the Russia Ukraine war in 2023 that's last
year Hamas terrorists attacked Israel and Israel began a military operation in Gaza which is yet to end now Israel and
Iran are engaged in a direct Faceoff these conflicts impact not just the countries involved but the whole world
they hurt the global economy and disrupt Supply chains it's no wonder that today's events have triggered more
uncertainty how will Iran's attack impact oil prices will the global markets be hit what
about travel and trade disruptions our next report tells you all that you need to
know Iran's attack on Israel May reshape the regional
Dynamics but in the immediate future an escalation of tensions in West Asia threatens to [ __ ] an already fragile
global economy oil the Region's most important export remains vulnerable Iran's attack
could lead to a spike in prices already the market for oil is volatile the price of one barrel is inching closer to
$100 if there is a disruption in supplies for a long period the daily supply of crude could shrink by up to 8
million barrels a day how would the shortage impact the price the cost of one barrel of oil could jump up to as
much as $140 that's troubling news for countries like India India Imports 85% of its
crude needs since late March prices have jumped to a 4month high putting pressure
on the margins of Indian manufacturers they cut fuel prices just last month if
the global prices don't stabilize soon sustaining the lower prices may prove to be challenging stock market investors
are wary too on Sunday West Asian markets dipped after the Iranian attacks
stocks in Saudi Arabia Qatar and Israel dipped the losses were relatively minor
American markets too are under pressure on Friday the S&P 500 closed in the red
investors blamed geopolitical tensions as the reason fears of a wider War could
make them more nervous cryptocurrency also witnessed wild fluctuations when
Iran attacked Israel Bitcoin fell sharply by 9% however the token
rebounded later in the day but if Israel escalates bigger losses could be in
store in that case the aviation sector May face the most significant repercussions already a number of
Airlines have either called off flights or rerouted their planes this includes names like Quantas Airways Singapore
Airlines Lanza Kuwait Airways and swiss International India's biggest airlines
are forced to take measures too flights of Air India vistara and indigo have suspended their flights to thean they're
also avoiding the Iranian airspace so if you have a flight scheduled soon chances are it may take
longer for you to reach your destination or Worse your flight may be cancelled altogether but it's not a crisis for
everyone investors in Gold are cheering the global uncertainty has led to a surge in Gold purchases the yellow metal
has gained by 133% already touching a price record of $2,400 for an ounce
briefly however The Strife in West Asia will give little Comfort to economists
already the IMF is worried about this Outlook the scars of the pandemics are
still with us the global output loss since 2020 is around
$3.3 trillion dollar with the cost disproportionately falling on the most
vulnerable countries and we see a growing Divergence within and a cross
country groups since 2020 our world has faced a slow FL of Crisis from the
pandemic to the many wars for the well-being of the global economy it is
critical that coola heads
prevail now let's zoom in a bit and take a closer look at the region in direct firing range the other major players in
West Asia and I must say here that this region has never been a beacon of
stability but last night's attack makes it even more of a Tinder Box the Iranian missiles and drones flew over multiple
countries before reaching Israel plus Iran's proxies joined the attack we told you about them like the hisbah it's a
group based in Lebanon and Lebanon is major player number one it has always been caught in
Israel's conflicts in fact Israel had occupied the southern part of Lebanon from 1985 to 2000 for almost 15 years so
if the Iran Israel fight escalates Lebanon will likely get caught in the war and they will side with
Iran next we have Syria the official owners of the Golan Heights region occupied by Israel and major player
number two Syria is another country close to Iran their president is Bashar alassad and he's still in power only
thanks to thean they helped him win a civil war there are also armed
iran-backed groups in Syria like smaller versions of the hisbah so if it comes to it Syria will side with Iran then
there's major player number three Iraq and this is a a bit of a unique case on the one hand Iraq has fought a major war
against Iran the first Gulf War in the 1980s but since then the countries have come together Iraq's prime minister is
even considered pro-iranian his path to the to the top job was helped by pro-iran political parties Iran Iraq in
fact also has an Iraq many Ira iran-backed militias on its soil they
are in Iraq so in the event of a war even if Iraq stays out the government stays out
these militias will join Iran and speaking of Iranian proxies there are
also some houthis in Yemen the group does not just attack ships in the Red Sea they're capable of reaching Israel
as well thanks to Iran made drones that The huis Have and that makes Yemen major
player number four so we have Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen directly or
indirectly these countries will be on Iran's side but they aren't the only ones with skin in the game you also have
the Arab states we'll start with with Israel's neighbor Jordan major player number five Jordan is home to US
military bases it is also home to millions of Palestinians Jordan is across the border from Israel so that is
where many Palestinian refugees took shelter after their displacement during the creation of Israel Millions still
live there and Jordan does not want any more so it always tries to deescalate
tensions it is at the Forefront of peace talks and it also helped shoot down
Iranian in weapons last night Jordan wants peace and calm to
return and an end to the influx of refugees which brings us to major player
number six the leader of the Arab and the Muslim world and that's Saudi Arabia Iran and Saudi Arabia had been Rivals
for decades the two power centers in West Asia but they buried the hatchet last year they normalized ties Riyad
would not want to resume hostilities so expect the kingdom to try and calm things down in fact look at Saudi Arabia
state it has called on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and spare the region
and its people from the dangers of War basically they're telling everyone to
calm down the other Arab states are likely to follow riad's lead and considering their ties with the US the
Arab pressure may be key to keeping the peace making Saudi Arabia the biggest
Regional player to watch right now
after Regional Players let's come back to the protagonist Israel and Iran why are they at War why have they
been fighting proxy battles for decades how did they go from being close allies to Arch Rivals that's right until the
1970s Iran and Israel were close allies our next report tells you what changed
and why the year was 1948 Israel was created
turkey became the first Muslim country to recognize the the Jewish state but can you guess who was the second
surprisingly Iran which was home to the biggest Jewish community in West Asia at
the time relations were anything but hostile between Iran and Israel in fact the two shed close ties they had become
allies under the last sha Muhammad RZA Pahlavi according to reports Israel
imported 40% of its oil from Iran in exchange for agricultural produce weapons and technology so how did the
two Nations go from being allies to enemies the shift happened in
1979 this was the year of the Islamic revolution when Iran toppled the Sha a
new Islamic Republic of Iran was born this swiftly ended the friendship between the two states the Ayatollah or
the Supreme leaders took charge of Iran and all of them considered Israel to be Enemy Number One also the illegal
occupiers of Jerusalem after the 1979 Revolution tan
cut all ties with Israel citizens could no longer travel there flight routes
were cancelled the Israeli Embassy in tan was transformed into the Palestinian Embassy in turn Israel refused to
recognize the new Islamic Republic and this was only the beginning over the
decades the two Nations have sought to grow their influence across the region as their Ambitions clashed their enemity
[Applause] grew now Iran's supports groups that view Israel as a major enemy these armed
groups and militias are spread across Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen the most important among them is Hezbollah which
is backed by Iran's Elite Islamic revolutionary guard core Israel has
returned the favor so to speak by backing groups that oppose Iran tahan designates many of these as terrorist
organizations like the mujahidin a europe-based organization and Kurdish armed groups in Iraqi
Kurdistan the two Nations have fought proxy wars for decades now they have also carried out a long series of
attacks on each other this Shadow War has gone on both within and outside their soils for instance Israel has
vowed to never let Iran develop a nuclear bomb tahan's nuclear program has been a sight of a number of attacks
Israel has never accepted responsibility for these strikes meanwhile Iran has also targeted several Israeli interests
for instance in 2012 a series of attacks were launched against Israeli Targets in Georgia India and Thailand Israel
accused toan but Iran denied the charges to no one's surprise then again in 2021
an Israeli owned vehicle carrier was hit by an explosion it was sailing off the coast of Oman tahan was blamed again but
it denied any involvement Iran and Israel went from allies to sworn enemies
and now for the first time almost after half a century of being fors Iran has directly attacked Israel the road to
reconciliation has never seemed farther and with that it is a wrap on
the special edition of Vantage we'll keep tracking all the updates from Israel Iran and around the world so make
sure you keep tracking first post keep watching we'll see you tomorrow
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